What Are Prediction Markets?

A prediction market is a trading platform where you buy and sell Shares based on the outcome of future events.

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How It Works

Every market poses a question like "Will X happen?", and each possible outcome has a Share you can trade. Share prices are always between $0.001 and $0.999, and the price reflects the crowd's estimated probability: a Share at $0.70 means the market sees a 70% chance.

Yes + No = $1.00. Every market has two sides, Yes and No, and their prices always add up to $1.00. If Yes is $0.70, No is $0.30. One side's gain is the other side's loss.

If the outcome happens, your Shares settle at $1.00. If not, $0.00. But you don't have to wait for the result. You can sell your Shares anytime before settlement. If the price moves in your favor, you can lock in profit early. If it moves against you, you can cut losses.

Example: "Will Team A win the championship?" Yes Share is trading at $0.60. Buy 100 Shares at $0.60 = $60 cost. Team A wins → 100 × $1.00 = $100. Profit: $40 (+67%). Or, Yes rises to $0.80 before the game ends. Sell at $0.80 = $80. Profit: $20 without waiting for the result.

Profit Structure

Outcome	Calculation	Example(Limit Order: Yes $0.600 × 100 Shares)
Cost	Shares × Price	100 × $0.600 = $60
Win	Shares × $1.000	100 × $1.000 = $100 → Net +$40
Loss	Shares × $0.000	$0 → Net -$60

Settlement (PUNCH.WIN)

Each market's outcome is determined by an oracle, an external data source that confirms the final result.

Settlement

Market Category	Oracle	Resolution
Crypto Up/Down (BTC)	Verifiable BTC Price Oracle	Auto-settled per round
Event Markets (Polymarket Inherited)	UMA Oracle + Polymarket API (cross-verified)	After 1-hour cooling period following result confirmation

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